Democrats felt early on in 2025 that they may have a chance to flip the House in the 2026 midterm elections, with some advisors estimating those chances at about 35%. The sentiment was based on potential Trump fatigue, and the historical pattern of Congress usually changing hands in a Presidential second term.
The Senate seemed untouchable, with many Republican held seats locked down in red states, and a few Democratic seats somewhat vulnerable. The strategy would be to protect incumbents, and perhaps eke out a surprising win to get the Senate closer to 50-50. This seemed a longshot.
But something happened along the way that changed all that – and it was Donald Trump himself. Trump wasted no time in implementing largely unilateral policy by Executive Order, often announced via Truth Social, and many times doing so without consulting his Cabinet. Instead, he relied on a tight circle of unelected, unconfirmed internal advisors (Stephen Miller, Peter Navarro, Kevin Hassett, Elon Musk, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Russell Vought) to validate his darkest thoughts.
Inadvertently, the wheels were set in motion to dramatically change public perception, and mobilize voters against the Trump agenda.
Some examples, in no particular order:
DHS and ICE Deployment
The focus early on was hyper-aggressive immigration enforcement action – culminating in the deputization of thousands of ICE officers into roaming bands of masked militia – with immense leeway to utilize whatever form of violence necessary to create maximum fear. Cruelty was the goal. What was positioned as a massive effort towards the deportation of “the worst of the worst, the criminals, the degenerates”, quickly devolved into “brown skin, speaks with an accent, has Hispanic last name”. The violence was on video, from multiple angles – screaming children being ripped from the arms of day workers, nannies, roofers, landscapers – with the adults forced into unmarked vehicles, and disappeared. The Rule of Law was abandoned, the images were heartbreaking.
Protests became more visible, and more obstructive for ICE. During a particularly loud reaction to what was a sequence of aggressive arrests in Minneapolis, two protesters, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, were murdered live, on camera, within two weeks of each other by ICE officers. Trump’s Administration cheered these events as heroic, despite the video evidence proving that the ICE officers were entirely at fault, woefully untrained, and unqualified to be making life and death decisions. This callous reaction to these tragic deaths left a stain that nobody in this White House has attempted address.
Goodbye, Latino vote. And Moderates on both sides of the aisle took notice. This was spinning out of control.
Global Trade War
Almost immediately, Trump declared an economic war against every country on Earth – except Russia and North Korea. Trump imposed unilateral tariffs on virtually all consumer goods coming into the United States, which in turn raised consumer prices, and impacted supply. Economic experts across the spectrum have historically agreed that tariffs amount to a consumer tax, and they simply don’t work. Without evidence, Trump claimed America was taking in “trillions of dollars” from foreign countries, thanks to his tariffs. These claims are comically easy to disprove, yet Republican leadership remained silent, and in many cases, simply parroted the falsehoods. There is no revenue windfall. The tiny revenue secured through tariffs is far outweighed by the loss of revenue via Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthy. The national debt continues to explode, and now there’s the added bonus of pissing off virtually every ally America has nurtured for decades.
Vanity Construction Projects
Rose Garden renovation (~$2M) – from quaint and intimate, to convention center patio
Destruction of the White House East Wing (~$600M) – what started as a privately funded project of $200M, exploded into a $600M runaway train, suddenly labeled a matter of national security to justify the taxpayer portion. President Obama remarked, “The East Wing looks like Saddam Hussein built a Cheesecake Factory”. Trump took great offense to the reference to the Cheesecake Factory, but took no issue with “Saddam Hussein”. Odd.
Kennedy Center Renovation (~$257M) – Currently on hold because a judge ruled Trump’s name could not be affixed to the building. In response, Trump has threatened to knock the building down entirely.
White House Helicopter Pad (~$13M) – One of Trump’s favorite things to show White House guests – a round, painted slab of concrete.
Air Force One Replacement (~$1.5B) – Touted as “free” gift from Qatar, the retrofitting process to make the new Air Force One compliant with security requirements exploded to an additional taxpayer cost approaching $1B. The cost to add a new hanger at Joint Base Andrews to accommodate the aircraft was additional $400M. If this is what “free” is, we can’t afford it.
Trump Triumphal Arch ($100M) – Recently approved, but likely delayed due to legal challenges – mostly from interest groups concerned about impact on Arlington National Cemetery and its legacy. Trump famously commented that those that lie in these fields were “suckers and losers”.
Reflecting Pool Renovation (~$16M) – Initial estimates were $1.8M, but the Mar-A-Lago contractor who hadn’t built anything larger than a swimming pool, dramatically underestimated the effort and expertise required for something as long as 7 football fields. Immediate quality issues forced a second renovation – which everyone except Trump blame on incompetence, not vandalism.
As Americans struggled at the grocery stores and gas pumps, Trump inability to NOT brag about these huge projects and cost overruns, largely on the taxpayer dime, was an enormous unforced error. Note that the Republican Congress never intervened when Trump continuously flouted the allocated Budget, while adding ~$4.2T to the National Debt.
Affordability Crisis
Despite promises during the 2024 campaign that prices would slashed dramatically in his second term, many on “Day 1”, inflation has risen under Trump’s watch for almost all staples, and most dramatically with gasoline and diesel fuel. Trump’s reaction to this market feedback was, “Affordability is a Democrat hoax” – another unforced error from a man too lazy to address real challenges.
Iran
“No new wars.” Not much wiggle room here. Fifty billion dollars and counting, combined with the 23 military deaths, the 200 school girls killed by American forces due to faulty intelligence, and the subsequent fuel crisis based on resulting supply chain disruptions will haunt this Administration until it’s last day. Most experts predicted exactly what would happen – but what can you say to a President who believes he knows more than anybody about anything?
Bad Candidates, Bad Campaign Strategies (some Senatorial examples)
Trump personally handpicked or endorsed a clown car of Senate and House candidates based on their blind loyalty to him. A smart man would probably consider who would have the best chance keep or win the seat, but this is Trump we are talking about.
Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R)
El-Sayed was laser focused on bringing all conversations back to affordability for Michiganders, the failures of the Iran war, and fuel prices. Rogers decided to spread Islamophobic accusations of El-Sayed being a “jihadist”, a “terrorist”, and aligned with the “Muslim Brotherhood”. Voters were swayed by the calm, reasoned cadence from El-Sayed, and the majority viewed the Rogers campaign as racist, and disorganized.
Texas: Mike Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R)
Talarico put his seminary training on hold to run for higher office, and campaigned on a message of hope, and Christian love for those different than us, or less fortunate. His rallies overflowed with optimism and grace. The Paxton campaign inferred Talarico was gay, and maybe transsexual, and, god forbid, a vegan! Needless to say, the campaign that ran on issues walloped the campaign that ran on bigotry and hate. Even in Texas, the voters had had enough.
South Carolina: Annie Andrews (D) vs Darline Graham (R)
A doctor of medicine, specializing in early childhood care, and a college professor, Annie Andrews ran a campaign focused on healthcare reform, fighting the affordability crisis in South Carolina, and school safety programs for children. Graham called Andrews “batshit crazy”, and accused her of performing gender-affirming surgery on minors – a grotesque lie. Once Graham confirmed to the public she was woefully unqualified, whose claim to the seat was solely based on being the sister of the now deceased incumbent, the voters easily showed her the door.
Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) vs Roger Marshall (R)
This upset was especially entertaining. Reverend Adam Hamilton, the longest of longshots, became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas since 1932. That’s 94 years. Hamilton campaigned as a centrist, at times calling himself “a conservative liberal, or a liberal conservative, depending on the issue and the day of the week.” Kansas has been ruby-red safe for so long, even Roger Marshall’s odd town halls and treatment of his constituents didn’t seem likely to unseat him. In a New York Times investigation, it was discovered that when Marshall was a physician, he routinely sued patients for the unpaid medical debt they incurred under his care. Over 800 patients, many destitute, were served with papers, sometimes for as little as $110 owed. This of course would include the 18% interest Marshall tagged on in annual interest. Not a great look. Even in his concession speech, Marshall opined, “I don’t have any answers” as to what happened November 4. The irony.
At the end of the day, the 2026 Midterms overperformed for Democrats in a historical way. The aftermath is still unfolding, as Republicans now scramble to ram through as much legislation they can as a lame duck Congress. I imagine there is regret they didn’t start sooner – the signs of an election wipeout were there long before November. In January, there will be several new sheriffs in D.C., and MAGA is cornered. What is it they say about a cornered rat?
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